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    TD SYNNEX (SNX)

    Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Jul 2, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$127.60Last close (Jun 23, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$128.01Open (Jun 24, 2025)
    Price Change
    $0.41(+0.32%)
    • PC Demand Pull Forward: Management highlighted a $100–200 million pull forward in PC sales that delivered about $10 million in incremental gross profit, suggesting near‑term revenue and margin boosts [Index 5].
    • Robust Hive Performance: Hive demonstrated strong performance with high teens percentage growth and improved working capital, indicating margin stabilization and operational efficiency [Index 7][Index 8].
    • Strategic Expansion with Hyperscalers: Ongoing engagements with hyperscalers and the shift toward higher‑margin ODM/value‑chain offerings support long‑term sustainable growth and improved profitability [Index 11].
    • Tariff and geopolitical uncertainty: Comments from management indicated that the impact of tariffs remains very uncertain, with potential adverse effects on future demand and margins given the volatile global trade environment.
    • Demand pull forward risk: The Q2 results were partially bolstered by a pull forward of orders (estimated at $100–200 million) that could lead to softer demand in future quarters and a lull in revenue growth if the effect subsides.
    • Margin pressure from product mix and FX issues: The margin profile has been under pressure due to issues in the Hive segment—such as unrealized FX losses and a less favorable product mix—which could continue to weigh on overall profitability if these challenges persist.
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue

    7.2%

    The increase from $13,947.91 million in Q2 2024 to $14,946.3 million in Q2 2025 reflects robust performance driven by strong growth in the Endpoint and Advanced Solutions portfolios and favorable currency movements. Similar drivers were noted in earlier periods where portfolio strength and foreign currency impact were key influencers.

    Americas Revenue

    5.3%

    Americas revenue grew from $8,557.57 million to $9,009.2 million, largely owing to resilient performance in core portfolios despite a dampening effect from a higher percentage of net-based sales presentation that had negatively impacted previous comparisons.

    Europe Revenue

    10.5%

    The Europe region saw revenue rise from $4,426.78 million to $4,890.0 million, a recovery driven by improvements in both Advanced and Endpoint Solutions segments and mitigation of previous foreign currency headwinds, echoing positive trends observed in prior periods.

    APJ Revenue

    8.7%

    APJ revenue increased from $963.56 million to $1,047.1 million, with the rise attributed to enhanced performance in key portfolios and beneficial foreign currency adjustments that helped reverse earlier negative net-basis impacts noted in previous periods.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Gross Billings

    Q3 2025

    $19.7 billion to $20.7 billion, representing approximately 5% growth at the midpoint

    $21,000,000,000 to $22,000,000,000, representing approximately 6% growth at the midpoint

    raised

    Net Revenue

    Q3 2025

    $13.9 billion to $14.7 billion, with a gross-to-net adjustment of approximately 29%

    $14,700,000,000 to $15,500,000,000, which translates to an anticipated net adjustment of 30%

    raised

    Non-GAAP Net Income

    Q3 2025

    $205 million to $247 million

    $227,000,000 to $268,000,000

    raised

    Diluted EPS

    Q3 2025

    $2.45 to $2.95 per diluted share, based on weighted average shares outstanding of 83 million

    $2.75 to $3.25 per diluted share, based on weighted average shares outstanding of approximately 81,800,000

    raised

    Tax Rate

    Q3 2025

    23%

    Approximately 23%

    no change

    Interest Expense

    Q3 2025

    $86 million

    $89,000,000

    raised

    Share Repurchases

    Q3 2025

    no prior guidance [N/A]

    $175,000,000

    no prior guidance

    MetricPeriodGuidanceActualPerformance
    Net Revenue
    Q2 2025
    $13.9B to $14.7B
    $14.9463B
    Beat
    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    PC Demand

    Multiple periods emphasized the PC refresh cycle with strong growth driven by Windows refresh and an aging PC base – Q1 2025 focused on pandemic refresh and Windows 11 ( ), Q4 2024 discussed recovery via Windows 10 refresh and commercial focus ( ), and Q3 2024 noted lower‐than-expected recovery with emerging AI PCs ( ).

    Q2 2025 detailed strong PC demand in both B2B segments and overall recovery, while noting pull-forward risks from accelerated sales from previous quarters ( ).

    Consistent positive outlook, with ongoing growth driven by refresh cycles but with a cautious note on pull-forward risks and evolving customer segments.

    Hive/Hyve Business

    Across Q1 2025 ( ), Q4 2024 ( ) and Q3 2024 ( ), Hive/Hyve was noted for double-digit or high-teen revenue growth but recurring margin challenges due to factors such as shipment delays and investment impacts.

    Q2 2025 reported robust high-teen revenue growth driven by server and network rack programs while highlighting margin pressure from unrealized FX losses and program mix, with indications of margin stabilization ( ).

    Recurring growth with persistent margin pressures; though growth remains strong, challenges such as FX headwinds continue, with signs of stabilization emerging in the current period.

    Strategic Technology Growth

    Q1 2025 mentioned double-digit growth in cloud, cybersecurity, AI and data analytics with strong performance from security, cloud and data analytics ( ); Q4 2024 highlighted double-digit growth across these segments with an integrated cloud platform ( ); Q3 2024 focused on AI initiatives and hyperscaler investments ( ).

    Q2 2025 emphasized robust growth in cloud, cybersecurity, and AI infrastructure – with detailed contributions from each segment driving software growth and innovative deployments ( ).

    Steady and accelerating, as the company maintains strong double-digit growth while deepening its AI integration and strategic technology investments.

    Geopolitical Uncertainties

    In Q1 2025, tariffs were mentioned with an emphasis on the company’s ability to pass through costs ( ); Q4 2024 discussed evolving macro complexities and uncertain tariff environments ( ); Q3 2024 did not address these issues.

    Q2 2025 revisited macro risks and specific geopolitical uncertainties – citing issues including Middle East concerns and uncertain tariff regimes that may affect demand ( ).

    Persisting cautious tone; while always present, the geopolitical and tariff risks continue to be monitored, with nuanced emphasis depending on the quarter.

    Margin and Profitability

    Q1 2025 reported margin declines driven by Hyve performance and product mix shifts ( ); Q4 2024 outlined headwinds from tough year-over-year comparisons in Hyve and cost management challenges ( ); Q3 2024 noted product mix and regional/geographic factors reducing margins ( ).

    Q2 2025 showed a 5% gross margin (with a 21-basis-point year-over-year decline) impacted by FX losses and mix issues (especially in Hive) while expecting some stabilization ( ).

    Consistently pressured margins; product mix and FX issues remain a challenge but management anticipates normalization as temporary factors diminish.

    Cash Flow Management

    Q1 2025 experienced high free cash flow usage due to higher working capital and inventory buildup ( ); Q4 2024 demonstrated strong free cash flow generation, improved cash conversion cycle, and significant capital returns ( ); Q3 2024 focused on steady free cash flow and efficient working capital use ( ).

    Q2 2025 reported solid free cash flow generation (over $543 million) with improvements in working capital, a shorter cash conversion cycle, and active capital returns via share repurchases and dividends ( ).

    Stable and efficient, reflecting consistent focus on working capital optimization and disciplined capital return strategies across periods.

    Strategic Expansion

    Q1 2025 highlighted leveraging the Hyve business to tap into the hyperscaler market and geographic opportunities in Latin America and APJ ( ); Q4 2024 detailed marketplace syndication with AWS and Azure, plus targeted expansions in India and Japan ( ); Q3 2024 emphasized building new partnerships and pipelines ( ).

    Q2 2025 described a strong pipeline of hyperscaler engagements with U.S. onshore investments and significant regional growth in Europe and APJ, as well as diversifying into sovereign customers ( ).

    Growing and diversifying; strategic expansion through enhanced hyperscaler partnerships and targeted geographic initiatives is intensifying, positioning the company well for future growth.

    Operational Execution

    Q1 2025 stressed efficient execution with stable operating margins and a strong distribution network ( ); Q4 2024 emphasized operational excellence and efficient cost management with improved cash conversion ( ); Q3 2024 stressed disciplined cost management and capacity utilization ( ).

    Q2 2025 demonstrated strong operational execution with solid distribution performance, consistent growth in gross billings and maintained margins even amid macro uncertainty ( ).

    Consistently strong and disciplined; the company continues to execute efficiently, maintaining cost control and distribution efficiency across periods.

    AI Product Adoption

    Q1 2025 noted a gradual increase in AI product adoption despite enterprise challenges ( ); Q3 2024 focused on the slow ramp of AI PCs with potential for future acceleration, along with some mention of revenue conversion challenges ( ); Q4 2024 highlighted AI-related demand within advanced solutions ( ).

    Q2 2025 did not mention AI product adoption or delayed revenue realization, signaling a possible temporary de-emphasis of the topic in the current call.

    Evolving and less emphasized; while earlier periods showed cautious optimism around AI adoption and highlighted delayed revenue impacts (notably in Hyve), the current period sees less discussion – possibly as focus shifts to other immediate drivers.

    1. Free Cash Flow
      Q: Does FCF target of $1.1B hold?
      A: Management reaffirmed their outlook to achieve $1.1B in free cash flow by leveraging working capital improvements and a strong cash conversion cycle, underscoring a disciplined balance sheet approach.

    2. Pull Forward
      Q: What was the pull forward impact?
      A: They noted a modest pull forward in PCs, contributing approximately $100M–$200M in sales and roughly $10M in additional gross profit this quarter, with expectations for an even mix of ES and AS in the latter half.

    3. Tariff Regime
      Q: What tariff assumptions are you using?
      A: Management referenced uncertainties ahead of July, basing forecasts on historical reciprocal levels—around a 10% influence—but cautioned that outcomes remain uncertain.

    4. Hive Improvements
      Q: How are Hive issues evolving?
      A: Despite early inventory and demand challenges, Hive delivered strong mid–high teens growth in Q2 and improved working capital, indicating that earlier issues are largely resolved.

    5. PC Margin Gains
      Q: What drives sequential PC margin improvements?
      A: The margin gains stem from a favorable pricing environment and a shift in product mix toward higher-margin components, bolstered by robust refresh cycle activity.

    6. PC Refresh Cycle
      Q: Where are we in the PC refresh?
      A: According to management, the industry is in the middle of its PC refresh cycle, with ongoing strong demand ensuring persistent contribution to overall growth.

    7. Demand Trends
      Q: How did demand progress month-over-month?
      A: The quarter exhibited strong mid–teens growth in early months, a slight deceleration in May, and then a return to pace in June, suggesting a steady underlying demand.

    8. APJ Performance
      Q: What fueled APJ’s robust growth?
      A: Growth in APJ was driven by solid B2B performance in India and a consumer-led rebound in Japan, with all countries contributing positively.

    9. Hive vs. ODM Dynamics
      Q: How do Hive and ODM performances differ?
      A: ODM segments delivered impressive 45% growth, contrasting with Hive’s high teens, as supply chain mix issues impacted margins; meanwhile, increased made-in-America discussions with hyperscalers signal strong strategic momentum.

    Research analysts covering TD SYNNEX.